California had over $5 Billion in cannabis sales last year, however monthly sales figures have steadily declined since August 2021.
What’s the Significance?:
Some analysts are claiming there’s a correlation between cannabis sales and COVID restrictions easing.
The theory is that people had more idle time at home during the lockdowns, with extra income from stimulus checks, so many of those people turned to cannabis products.
Now that lockdowns are over, the theory goes that those people are now using less cannabis.
What Happened in California last month?:
Total Sales= $419M
YOY Sales Growth= -11.6% (Sales growth topped 77% prior to Covid)
Avg Basket= $57.73
Like-Store-Sales-Growth (LSSG)= -3.98%
Sales patterns were similar to other states, with declines starting right before the summer in May 2021.
The prevailing theory of attributing lower sales to the end of the lockdowns might be part of the reason, however, I believe the impact of inflation can not be overstated.
The same economic factors hitting other business sectors are also affecting the cannabis industry. Cannabis sales aren’t falling just because people are trying to enjoy the outdoors, it’s also falling as inflation and gasoline prices are rising.
Decreased average basket size trend continues, while the number of transactions continues to increase- indicating consumers are still going to #potshops more often, but spending less per transaction. This could mean consumers are trying to avoid higher minimum delivery requirements and opting to go to dispensaries and buying only what they need instead.
Brand concentration has remained relatively steady, however, it’s anticipated that consolidation will pick up as Canadian companies and private equity and venture capitalists come into the space in anticipation of U.S. Federal legalization to snap up under-valued cannabis prospects in hopes of a legalization rally that’ll spark the next wave of cannabis stock speculation.
Cannabis Market Overview
Josh Kincaid, Capital Markets Analyst & host of your cannabis business podcast.
Episode 999 The #TalkingHedge…
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